I want to share with you four observations and questions on the topic ‘Is the Dalai Lama bad for the West’
Firstly, it seems that the Tibetan issue has been turned into the issue of the Dalai Lama. This has certainly been the position of the Chinese government. In the recent UN Universal Peridical Review On China, they blamed the Dalai Lama for organizing self-immolations inside Tibet. The Western governments only calls for the Chinese government to resume dialogue with the Dalai Lama. The newly elected Tibetan government in exile lacks recognition as well as self-identification. They haven’t really proposed their own political agenda that might expand the space which has been created but also restricted by the Dalai Lama’s Middle-Way Approach.
Secon, Tibet is a bargaining chip for the west when dealing with China. It is generally assumed that countries that welcome the Dalai Lama’s visit will pay the price of losing China’s market. Because of this assumption top leaders in South Afria, Japan, Taiwan all declined to meet with the Dalai Lama in recent years. Cameron met with the Dalai Lama in 2012 and now promise not to meet with the Dalai Lama again. The implication is that by meeting with the DALAI LAMA, the UK had been punished in economy. But in fact, the bilateral trade in goods between the two countries reached $63.1 billion in 2012, surging 7.5 percent compared with 2011. China needs the world market more than the world needs China. China’s own financial and economic crisis is much more severe than that of the West.
Thirdly, Dalai Lama, China’s colonization of Tibet is being strengthened by global capital chains. The West has joined in the plundering of resources in Tibet. There are many such examples: Siemens via Asiaifom and China National Gold Group are jointly mining at Gyama, which provides key materials of military vehicles and equipments for factories in Sichan and Innermongolia. In addition, with technical assistance by Ford Motor Company, the military equipments are used to facilitate crackdown on Tibetan uprisings.
Fourthly, I want to mention some of the new devices that CCP has developed in order to control Tibet. The CCP Third Plenum developed at least two main survillence and crackdown in Tibet areas. Last week, the CCP Third Plenum announced the establishment of the National Security Council, which will incorperate domestic, foreign, military decisions to serve the stablity maintanence. This will allow the CCP to crack down more effecively and quickly on resistance in Tibetan areas. In addition, Chinese government has developed linguistic surveillance technology to monitor voice calls, messages sent online, as well as images embedded within the communications line, in areas such as Xinjiang and Tibet where officials do not understand the local language.
Finally, I want to put forward a question: apart from the West, the Dalai Lama, the Chinese government, are there any other actors in the Tibet issue? Especially the non-state actors, civil societies. What impact will they have on Tibet’s future?
Shao Jiang’s Speech on A Roundtable Discussion: “Is the Dalai Lama Bad for the West?”
In Chinese
我想就“是否达赖喇嘛对西方不利”的话题，分享四个方面的观察及其相关问题。
首先，这个题目本身看似将西藏（整个藏区，下同）问题已经转变成了达赖喇嘛的问题，这无疑是中国政府的立场。在最近的联合国普遍审议中国时，中国政府指责达赖喇嘛组织了在境内藏区的自焚。西方国家政府集中的要求仅陷于要求中国政府恢复与达赖喇嘛对话。新选出的西藏流亡政府对此问题也没有清晰的梳理，与前任政府相比没有根本区别，他们还没有提出自己新的政治议程，目前流亡政府没有扩大达赖喇嘛已创立中间道路的空间，只是受限于中间道路。
其次，西藏已经变成了与中国打交道时的筹码 (不仅是西方)。一般的假设是以高规格欢迎达赖喇嘛访问的国家将付出失去中国市场的代价。由于这个假设南非、日本和台湾最高领导人最近几年都拒绝与达赖喇嘛见面。2012年5月英国首相卡梅伦会见达赖喇嘛 ，马上承诺不再与达赖喇嘛见面了。中国的潜台词是与达赖喇嘛会面，将在经济上处罚英国。但事实上，这两个国家之间的双边货物贸易在2012年达63.1亿， 卡梅伦与达赖喇嘛见面后，较2011年同期大幅度增长7.5%（参见英中双方的官方数据）。中国需要世界市场远超过世界需要中国，中国自身的金融和经济危机远比西方严重。
再次，全球资本链强化了中国在西藏的殖民。西方已经加入了对西藏资源的掠夺。有很多这样的例子： 西门子通过Asiainfo和中国黄金集团西门子公司共同在藏区甲玛开采 ，甲玛的矿产不仅提供了手机材料而且为四川和内蒙古（南蒙古）军工厂提供了军用车辆及其军事设备的关键材料。此外，福特汽车公司生产线和技术支持，都用于强化镇压西藏的起义。
第四，上周的中共的十八届三中宣布设立国家安全委员会，将军事、安全、公安、司法、外交、金融高度集权，使中共更全面地控制藏区，可能更快速有效打击传统的抵抗。此外，中国政府继续在维吾尔区及藏区发展语言监控技术和图像识别信息, 便于中共军警的镇压。
最后的一个问题：除了西方、达赖喇嘛、中国政府，在西藏问题的其它角色的作用是什么？尤其是非国家行为者，各地的公民社会对西藏的未来有什么影响？
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